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CIBC Economics

So, the federal government recently announced some new, lower targets for permanent<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240,&quot;469777462&quot;:[720,1440,2160,2880,3600,4320,5040,5760,6480,7200,7920,8640],&quot;469777927&quot;:[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],&quot;469777928&quot;:[1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1]}"> immigration into Canada.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240,&quot;469777462&quot;:[720,1440,2160,2880,3600,4320,5040,5760,6480,7200,7920,8640],&quot;469777927&quot;:[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],&quot;469777928&quot;:[1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1]}"> 
And that has led to some concern that Canadian growth could slow over the coming years.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240,&quot;469777462&quot;:[720,1440,2160,2880,3600,4320,5040,5760,6480,7200,7920,8640],&quot;469777927&quot;:[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],&quot;469777928&quot;:[1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1]}"> 
We are a little bit more positive when it comes to the Canadian growth outlook over the next couple of years, even with those lower population forecasts.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240,&quot;469777462&quot;:[720,1440,2160,2880,3600,4320,5040,5760,6480,7200,7920,8640],&quot;469777927&quot;:[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],&quot;469777928&quot;:[1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1]}"> 
That&#8217;s because we have a pool of unemployed people, a pool of people who have yet to participate in the labour market, who can come in and fill jobs and help grow the economy, as interest rates come down and demand for labour increases.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240,&quot;469777462&quot;:[720,1440,2160,2880,3600,4320,5040,5760,6480,7200,7920,8640],&quot;469777927&quot;:[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],&quot;469777928&quot;:[1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1]}"> 
The slack in the economy, or the slack in the labour market, probably won&#8217;t be used up until 2026.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240,&quot;469777462&quot;:[720,1440,2160,2880,3600,4320,5040,5760,6480,7200,7920,8640],&quot;469777927&quot;:[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],&quot;469777928&quot;:[1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1]}"> 
At that time, we may want to rethink immigration targets and to raise those back to the previous 500,000 level.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240,&quot;469777462&quot;:[720,1440,2160,2880,3600,4320,5040,5760,6480,7200,7920,8640],&quot;469777927&quot;:[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],&quot;469777928&quot;:[1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1]}"> 
But for now, there is plenty of room within our labour market to grow the economy, to accelerate growth, without having to worry about those lower immigration targets.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134245417&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240,&quot;469777462&quot;:[720,1440,2160,2880,3600,4320,5040,5760,6480,7200,7920,8640],&quot;469777927&quot;:[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],&quot;469777928&quot;:[1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1]}">

Will lower immigration targets impact economic growth in Canada?

CIBC Economics

Andrew Grantham

Senior Economist

CIBC

Will lower immigration targets impact economic growth in Canada?

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CIBC Economics

Andrew Grantham

Senior Economist

CIBC

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