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CIBC Economics

Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC: When it comes to the housing market, of course, it depends where you live.
Alberta does not face a crisis.
However, when you look at Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa, clearly we are seeing a housing market recession.
Now, this story is a reflection of two markets.
The low-rise segment of the market is actually okay.
I&#8217;m not too worried about it. It&#8217;s balanced.
The recession is actually in the condo market, especially in Toronto and Vancouver.
Prices are going down and will continue to go down and investors are out of the market.
This means that two years from now&#8230; three years from now, with investors still not in the market, but end users coming to the market and no supply entering the market, prices will start rising.
So, the bottom line here is that if you are in the market for a condo in Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa, the next two years will be your time because prices will go down and then they will go up.
What&#8217;s happening in the background is very interesting.
Purpose built rentals are actually replacing the condo market.
And that&#8217;s something that we haven&#8217;t seen in ages.
That will continue to be the case for the next ten years.
Purpose built rentals replacing the condo market.
Very interesting.

What trends are we seeing in Canada’s housing market today?

CIBC Economics

Benjamin Tal

Deputy Chief Economist

CIBC