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CIBC Economics

The Bank of Canada held interest rates at 2.25% again this week, but some comments within the statement and the press conference just highlights the dilemmas that policymakers have going forwards.
On the one hand, the Canadian economy is looking a little bit weaker than the Bank of Canada forecast in its previous monetary policy report.
GDP growth has been weaker, the labour market appears to be deteriorating again and inflation is just under 2%.
On the other hand, though, the conflict in the Middle East, the impact that that has had on oil prices, will see inflation accelerate in the near-term.
And the longer that persists for, the more likely it is that that inflationary pressure spreads to other areas of the economy.
So at the moment, the Bank of Canada is very happy to sit on its hands, see how these risks evolve.
And our forecast is that the Bank of Canada will remain on hold throughout the rest of the year, but that is based on the assumption that the conflict in the Middle East is fairly short-lived and inflation doesn&#8217;t spread to other areas of the economy.

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The Bank of Canada once again left interest rates unchanged, but will that trend continue?

The Bank of Canada once again left interest rates unchanged, but will that trend continue?

CIBC Economics

Andrew Grantham

Senior Economist

CIBC