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The Bank of Canada kept its interest rates unchanged again this week in a move that was widely expected, as policy makers grapple with the upside risks to inflation from higher energy prices, with the continued downside risks to the economy from US tariffs.
Looking forward, though, it did seem that the Bank of Canada was a little bit more worried about the upside risks from energy prices ahead in terms of their inflation forecast.
And they did suggest that there could be consecutive rate increases if energy prices remained high and that pass through into more broad inflationary pressures.
We do not see those things happening though.
We do think that by the second half of the year, oil prices will have fallen from the peak that they are currently at.
And we also think that the Canadian economy is weak enough to prevent that broadening of inflationary pressures into other areas.
If that happens, as we expect, then even with a short-term spike in inflation, the Bank of Canada will be able to look through that and keep interest rates at their current level throughout 2026.

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The Bank of Canada held interest rates again, but can it really hold steady for the rest of the year?

The Bank of Canada held interest rates again, but can it really hold steady for the rest of the year?

The Bank of Canada held interest rates again, but can it really hold steady for the rest of the year?

The Bank of Canada held interest rates again, but can it really hold steady for the rest of the year?

CIBC Economics

Andrew Grantham

Senior Economist

CIBC