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CIBC Economics

The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate on hold again this week at 2.25%, as it weighed some upside risks to inflation from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the impact that is having on energy prices.
With the downside risks to economic growth from the renewed and escalating trade conflict with the US.
But during the statement and during Governor Macklem’s press conference, there was a signal that there is growing unease within the Bank over the inflation outlook.
And because of that, financial markets have slightly pulled forward expectations for Bank of Canada interest rate hikes.
In our view, we don&#8217;t expect the Bank of Canada to move when there is this uncertainty around trade and tariffs and the growth outlook because of that.
And even if we do get some clarity on trade, if energy prices come back down, as we expect, then we think that the Bank of Canada will be less anxious on the inflation outlook and could actually keep interest rates on hold through to about the middle of next year.

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Interest rates remain on hold, but could ongoing geopolitical conflict trigger a move this year?

Interest rates remain on hold, but could ongoing geopolitical conflict trigger a move this year?

Interest rates remain on hold, but could ongoing geopolitical conflict trigger a move this year?

Interest rates remain on hold, but could ongoing geopolitical conflict trigger a move this year?

CIBC Economics

Andrew Grantham

Senior Economist

CIBC