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The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by a quarter point in response to the increase in the unemployment rate, with the deterioration in the labour market now impacting sectors that aren&#8217;t directly tied to trade frictions.
Underlying inflation has also cooled, helped by weaker demand tied to the slowdown in the labour market and the removal of retaliatory tariffs. There is also ongoing trade uncertainty now tied to the CUSMA trade deal review, which is weighing on business investment.
We expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates again in October by a quarter point, and that should help to stabilize the labour market and bring about a recovery in economic activity in 2026, when we expect to have more trade certainty.
Interest sensitive sectors, of course, will rebound, including the housing market and consumer spending later in the year.

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How will the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate reduction impact the Canadian economy?

How will the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate reduction impact the Canadian economy?

CIBC Economics

Katherine Judge

Senior economist

CIBC