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This transcript has been generated using machine learning technology. While this technology was trained with CIBC terminology, it may contain errors.
Lisa Raitt: Thank you for tuning in to The Raitt Stuff. I&#8217;m your host Lisa Raitt and in this podcast I&#8217;m going to share insights on current hot topics in the areas of public policy, politics and business, with some guests along the way. Welcome back to The Raitt Stuff. Well, things are moving very quickly in jolly old England in terms of political turnover. I thought I&#8217;d ask our good friend who&#8217;s the Managing Director of Global Government Relations, Amber Batool, to jump on with me today and just kind of help us understand and dissect exactly what&#8217;s going on. I&#8217;ll give you an example. I was listening to the radio this morning and I heard the news saying that the people of Great Britain were going back to the polls, which of course is not the case. And as a result, I thought Amber may be the best person to be able to give us an understanding as to what&#8217;s going on, given the fact that she&#8217;s held such high positions in the UK governments. So Amber, thank you very much for being available today for The Raitt Stuff.
Amber Batool: It&#8217;s a pleasure to be here, Lisa.
Lisa Raitt: Okay, let&#8217;s keep this simple. Amber, what is going on? What happened?
Amber Batool: Well, Lisa, to paraphrase the great poet and philosopher Taylor Swift, it&#8217;s a cruel, cruel summer for Keir Starmer and the Labour Party writ large. Look, Keir Starmer resigning was possibly the worst kept secret in politics. In another upending of political norms, President Trump actually pre-announced it over the weekend and gave him a good kick in the shins on the way out, saying he failed badly on two very important subjects, immigration and energy, and we will come to those in a minute. But really what the UK is now reeling with is their seventh prime minister in10years, almost as many as in the preceding half century. It&#8217;s genuinely extraordinary. And what leads us here? Stagnant growth, creaking public services, civil unrest, and a diminished place on the world stage.
So the latter means that they&#8217;ve often been pushed around by world events, but unable to be an influential voice at the table. So I&#8217;ve been asked a lot, what did Keir Starmer do wrong? And actually not that much. He was a terrible communicator and he was elected really to be this competent, capable, steady hand, but he made some unforced errors in judgment. And I think once people think you&#8217;re no longer capable, there&#8217;s no safety net.
Was he the worst prime minister the UK&#8217;s ever had? No. But did his cabinet care about that when he called around to ask them for support? Also no. So you had this huge fissure caused by Brexit, a succession of failed prime ministers, and the electorate were looking for a commanding and competent leader. But what they got was a little less Mr. Bond and a bit more Mr. Bean.
And he made some miscalculations. And to my mind, one was he trapped himself by ruling out tax increases and extra borrowing. And so he was unable to really make any sort of spending decisions. Add on to that, he had a terrible number ten operation. The infighting, the poor managerial instincts, and the poor judgment of his team was perhaps personified by the selection of Peter Mandelson to the coveted and highly influential position of UK ambassador to the US. He was a man who had resigned twice from previous governments in disgrace and had been very publicly confirmed to be an associate of Jeffrey Epstein. The appointment had caused some consternation amongst the diplomatic service and asked questions of his judgment, but Mr. Starmer and many around him felt it was a gamble worth taking if it gave the UK an upper hand in their make or break trade negotiations with the US.
Predictably, he was forced to resign in disgrace yet again, and that really led people to think, actually, is this the right man for the job?
And there was also no clarity on really big ticket issues like environmental or energy policy. And they&#8217;ve been hugely impacted by energy prices impacted by the war in Ukraine and in the Iran crisis. He also had poor local election results, which is not unusual, but importantly led to the resignation of his health secretary who was seen as a potential successor. And then finally, his chancellor is unpopular.
She did not give his very seasoned and highly respected defence secretary what he wanted when he was looking for an increase in his defence budget. And he also resigned last week. And I think really that was sort of the straw that broke the camel&#8217;s back.
Lisa Raitt: Mm-hmm. Do you see any similarities to the end of Justin Trudeau&#8217;s time as Prime Minister? I&#8217;m really struck with the bad election results coupled with high profile minister deciding to resign, coupled with just not a able to show that they have any kind of popularity with the electorate. But that was after ten years. And this is just so quick.
Amber Batool: Absolutely, this is two years. He had two years to really come in after a succession of conservative prime ministers who were not seen as capable. And so I think there&#8217;s absolute shadows of what happened with Justin Trudeau&#8217;s government. But I do think it&#8217;s an important question about whether&#8230;the centre-left can actually really hold in any government. You look at what&#8217;s happening in Germany, in France, you already actually have a right-wing government in Italy, but you really see a move towards populist right-wing people in their political systems. And so I think there&#8217;s a broader question here. Can a centre-left party hold? And I actually think Mr. Burnham&#8217;s got some interesting examples or lessons to learn from Mark Carney in terms of how he approached taking on the mantle after Mr. Trudeau and trying to really appeal more broadly, take some bigger decisions and hold together a coalition which, know, to the untrained eye might not look like something that&#8217;s typically seen as a left government.
Lisa Raitt: Yeah, it&#8217;s it&#8217;s super interesting that Andy Burnham has kind of come out of nowhere, but before we go on to talk about him, I did want to draw a distinction. So if the Prime Minister hadn&#8217;t resigned, do you think his caucus would have done what other conservative caucuses have done, and that is removed the leader?
Amber Batool: I think they would have. think that even though he came in with this majority, there was a sense that things just fell apart. He lost his chief of staff almost within the first few days of his government. He had poor message discipline when it came to actually a few successes with his government and his inability to really pull together the different parts of not just his party, but where the UK stands as a country. So, you know you have Nigel Farage and the Reform Party on one side, and then you&#8217;ve got the Green Party on the other. And he struggled to articulate any vision that the UK felt that they could get behind. And I think that was quite catastrophic because even if his own party came for him, you would have an electorate that was supportive. And in the end, he had neither.
Lisa Raitt: Yeah. So Andy Burnham, does he actually have a seat? Is he an elected member of parliament?
Amber Batool: Yes, and he&#8217;s actually not a novice. He was first elected to parliament in2001. He held cabinet posts as chief secretary to the treasury. He was the culture secretary and he was the health secretary. He also, and this is interesting, I think twice stood for the Labour leadership and was defeated both times, losing to Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn. So make of that what you will. He is a big supporter of Remain and said that he would like to see the UK rejoin the European Union in his lifetime. So that&#8217;s going to be a really interesting issue to watch for. And he stood down as an MP to basically take up position as the first mayor of Manchester. Was seen as popular, did well in the role, was seen to be a little more centre-left than previous governments, and was seen as a excellent communicator who got a few big things done. But that does mean he does have a record, Lisa. The UK press are already digging up things he has said in the past. They&#8217;re looking over his social media. They&#8217;re looking at what, you know, what really is behind Andy Burnham and his political philosophy. And at the moment, I&#8217;m not sure it&#8217;s entirely clear. So whilst he may now have a seat, and that&#8217;s why he was able to now challenge Mr. Starmer and that&#8217;s why Mr. Starmer resigned because they were waiting for the results of the election that took place last week. I don&#8217;t think his path to being a successful prime minister is very clear.
Lisa Raitt: Is there anybody else who is vying for the role of Prime Minister?
Amber Batool: Interestingly, when his health secretary Wes Streeting resigned, there was a thought that he might try and challenge Mr. Starmer, but he seems to have thrown his weight behind Andy Burnham as well for the moment. There are a couple of outliers in there, but for the time being, it looks like nobody is going to stand against him.
Lisa Raitt: So it&#8217;s gonna be the members…is it the members of the caucus who get to pick the next Prime Minister?
Amber Batool: So basically you need81MPs to support you. Once you have81MPs, then you get to have a vote amongst party members and affiliated trade union supporters. And I think the idea is that they haven&#8217;t set out an official timetable yet, but the idea is that they will try and pick a winner before parliament returns for its summer recess on September 1st.
Lisa Raitt: Okay. And in the meantime, the Prime Minister is the Prime Minister, but a bit of a lame duck.
Amber Batool: Absolutely complete lame duck. He did say that he would like the contenders to get the necessary support they need between the 9th and the16th of July and, you know, get things moving as quickly as possible. But as you know, Lisa, the business of government never stops.
So really they are seeking to get this all done as quickly as possible. And essentially whether the British public like it or not, and this does lead to questions about our democratic processes, it does look like it will be a coronation and the UK will have a new, another new prime minister in very short order.
Lisa Raitt: Wow, amazing. And right after G7, so we didn&#8217;t have the uncomfortableness of a of not having a prime minister.
Amber Batool: Indeed. So, he was a very steadfast ally to Mr. Zelenskyy. He was seen as a very credible ally with folks like Mr. Macron, with the Germans, with the EU. And I think there&#8217;s a little bit of bewilderment there as to why the UK has done this and why they&#8217;ve done it now, because he was seen as a very kind of credible and thoughtful partner. But as you know, Lisa, politics is a very cruel game, so he wasn&#8217;t able to convince his cabinet and his party of that. And that&#8217;s why we are where we are just now.
Lisa Raitt: Yeah. And last two questions. Should Mr. Burnham win or take over as Prime Minister, do you see a cabinet shuffle coming?
Amber Batool: I think so. And you know, he just, it&#8217;s interesting. None of the characters are hugely appealing or massively popular. Even, you know, with Mr. Burnham himself, there&#8217;s a little bit of remorse in some parts of the electorate that we just don&#8217;t have the new fresh faces coming through. I think a key one to watch for is who his chancellor will be. Rachel Reeves has been pretty unpopular as the chancellor for now. What happens to Ed Miliband? I think that&#8217;s one to watch for.
Wes Streeting, who was the health secretary, does he come back again? Yvette Cooper, who is seen as a very competent MP, very close to Prime Minister Brown when he was around, is also seen as somebody fairly competent. But is he going to bring in new faces? Is he going to try and placate the left? Is he going to try and bring in someone from more of the right of his party? I think we&#8217;ll wait and see. But the reshuffle, I think, will be a really clear first indicator of what Mr. Burnham&#8217;s priorities are and how he thinks he will execute on them.
Lisa Raitt: And finally, where are we in the general electoral scheme of things? Like we&#8217;re not that far from a general election that just happened.
Amber Batool: No, so…that’s a very good question. the next general election would have to take place before August2029. So if he does get in and if everything is smooth sailing, he does have a clear path without having to cause call a general election. But I do think that&#8217;s going to mean he is going to be under more and more pressure from parties like Reform and the Conservatives who will use these next few years to say he had no mandate. They have given it to somebody who you did not vote for. And then Lisa, the big issues that Keir Starmer faced are not going away for Andy Burnham. So, you know, under investment in public services, the lack of growth, growth has to be the number one thing on his agenda. Defense, energy. All of those things, none of them are going away. And then you have that coupled with quite a bit of civil unrest in the UK. There&#8217;s a lot of dissatisfaction linked to things like affordability and the cost of living. That&#8217;s just going to ratchet up, I think, over the next few years. And so these problems don&#8217;t go away from Andy Burnham. Being a slick communicator doesn&#8217;t get you around these huge decisions that he will have to face. And I think the biggest one of those might be what he does on the Brexit European Union front, because that, as you know, is a really hot button issue for the UK.
Lisa Raitt: Well, we&#8217;ll have to wait and see exactly what happens over the summertime, I guess, Amber. Thank you so much for jumping on with me so quickly today. I know that our clients can really appreciate the fact that we&#8217;re getting the information to them as soon as it&#8217;s hitting with incredible amount of insight. So thanks so much.
Amber Batool: Thank you.
Lisa Raitt: Thanks so much for tuning in. Now, if you have any questions or comments or even requests on topics to discuss, drop me a line at lisa.raitt@cibc.com. Your interactions actually will make this better. I&#8217;m your host, Lisa Raitt, and this has been The Raitt Stuff.
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Labour pains: Another UK prime minister resigns, what’s next for the UK?

Lisa Raitt

Vice-Chair, Global Investment Banking

CIBC Capital Markets

Amber Batool

Managing Director, Global Government Relations

CIBC

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