Our Conclusion: The CIBC Defence & Resiliency Summit reinforces an inflection point in Canada’s defence posture, with policy, capital, and industrial execution now aligned around a decade-long buildout of sovereign capability. The creation of the Defence Investment Agency (DIA) alongside the Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS) marks a shift away from fragmented procurement toward a centralized, capital markets-enabled model designed to accelerate deployment and anchor domestic supply chains. For Industrials and adjacent Technology, the opportunity set is broadening across infrastructure, aerospace, Arctic logistics, space systems, and quantum. The common thread is not just the scale of spending, but how it is deployed; faster, more coordinated, and increasingly reliant on private operators.
Defence Policy Moves to Execution: The federal government’s unified economic resilience and national security mandate is translating into tangible structural change. The DIS introduces explicit domestic content and export targets, supported by a step-up in defence spending over the medium term. The formation of the DIA addresses long-standing procurement bottlenecks by consolidating authority, enabling independent capital deployment, and introducing alternative contracting models such as early down-selection and sole sourcing. Early examples suggest timelines can compress meaningfully relative to historical norms.
Domestic Capacity Expansion Across Multiple Fronts: Capital deployment is already mapping to identifiable end-markets. Base modernization, marine infrastructure, and munitions manufacturing point to a large domestic construction and engineering cycle. Canada is also integrating more directly into allied procurement ecosystems, opening incremental export opportunities through European and U.S. partnerships. The investment requirement extends beyond defence assets into enabling infrastructure, including housing, utilities, and logistics, particularly in the North.
New End-Markets: Arctic, Space, and Quantum: The next phase of defence spending is increasingly tied to complex operating environments and advanced technologies. Arctic sovereignty introduces a dual-use procurement model in which civil infrastructure underpins military presence, favouring experienced northern operators. In space, demand for satellite, launch, and data capabilities is structural, with sovereignty considerations driving domestic investment across the value chain. Quantum remains at an earlier stage, but policy support and defence demand are converging around a small group of credible Canadian platforms, positioning the country to participate as commercialization advances.
Canada’s Macro Defence Strategy
The fireside chats with the Honourable David J. McGuinty, Minister of National Defence, and
Doug Guzman, CEO of the newly established Defence Investment Agency (DIA), outlined a
fundamental structural overhaul of Canada’s defence industrial base. The federal government
is looking to unify economic resilience and national security into one mandate. To address
historical fragmentation, slow procurement timelines, and intermittent industrial engagement,
Canada is executing its first-ever Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS).
This policy pivot is anchored by a commitment for defence spending to reach the NATO
target of 5% of GDP by 2035. To ensure this capital drives domestic growth, the DIS targets
70% of all federal defence contracts being awarded to Canadian firms, a 50% increase in
Canadian defence exports and the creation of ~125,000 regional jobs across the country.
Institutional Reform: The Defence Investment Agency (DIA)
To execute this decade-long mandate and to avoid historical procurement drag, the
government intends to introduce legislation to make the DIA a stand alone entity. Led by
inaugural CEO Doug Guzman, who brings deep financial expertise, the agency is structured
to dismantle a historical triangle of inertia. This bottleneck has traditionally spanned the
Department of National Defence (DND), Innovation, Science and Economic Development
(ISED), and Public Services and Procurement Canada (PSPC), with additional layers from
the Treasury Board and Finance stalling capital deployment.
The DIA has been granted expanded statutory freedoms and direct lines of authority to
accelerate execution:
Jurisdictional Independence: The DIA assumes full control over Industrial and
Technological Benefits (ITBs) and separate procurement jurisdiction from PSPC for all
major defence projects valued over $100MM, or those specifically routed to the agency at
the request of DND.
Autonomous Financial Backing: To anchor critical domestic capabilities, the DIA has
been allocated an initial $1B financing facility. This placeholder allows the agency to
independently deploy capital, guarantees, loans or hybrid securities without navigating
standard Treasury Board approval bottlenecks.
Early Down-Selection and Run-Off Models: The agency is moving away from
protracted open tenders in favour of early supplier down-selection and sole-source
contracting under specific conditions. As an initial proof of concept, the agency
compressed the preliminary phase of the Canada Patrol Submarine Projects, from a
traditional three-year timeline down to five months, establishing direct negotiations with
two final allied producers.
Capital Allocation, Strategic Sectors, and Allied Integration
The DIS prioritizes sovereign capabilities across 10 core strategic sectors, including
aerospace, digital systems, autonomous systems, ammunition, and sensors and surveillance
technologies. To scale domestic firms into these prime supply networks, federal agencies are
collaborating closely with commercial lenders and Crown corporations, including targeted
financing programs led by the BDC and expanded credit support from the EDC.
Concurrently, Canada is positioning its industrial base to support capacity constraints faced
by allied nations:
Global Technology Transfer: Global defence primes are increasingly viewing Canada
as an attractive location for advanced manufacturing and technology transfer due to its
skilled labor base and geographic export positioning.
Turnkey Export Capabilities: As a primary example of this dynamic, L3Harris is
expanding a major servicing capacity in Mirabel, Quebec, designed to support increased
volume of 5th-generation F-35 fighter jets. This infrastructure investment captures
overflow demand from a strained U.S. defence industrial base, allowing Canada to import
technical expertise and export high-margin aerospace services.
Bilateral Openings: Geopolitically, Canada is deepening participation in European
defence initiatives. Domestically, immediate physical infrastructure outlays includes base
modernization, electrification, water infrastructure upgrades, workforce housing
expansion, and submarine sustainment infrastructure in Halifax and Esquimalt.
Concrete Capital Outlays and Ground-Level Realities
During his fireside discussion, Minister McGuinty provided explicit, localized examples of how
this macro capital wave is actively translating into regional economic infrastructure:
Base Modernization and Workforce Logistics: The domestic spending program
targets the comprehensive modernization of Canadian military bases, encompassing
complete grid electrification, water, and wastewater upgrades. To support shifting
personnel levels, the mandate includes the construction of dedicated workforce homes.
Heavy Marine Infrastructure: The infrastructure required to support newly fast-tracked naval acquisitions involves significant regional capital outlays. The Minister highlighted an immediate investment designated for Halifax, Nova Scotia, alongside a parallel investment for Esquimalt, British Columbia, specifically allocated to upgrade regional maritime facilities to handle the incoming fleet of submarines.
Sovereign Industrial Footprint: To secure basic defence supply lines, the federal
government is moving forward with direct capital investment in critical domestic chemical and munitions manufacturing facilities, explicitly calling for new investment pipelines for nitrocellulose and TNT production plants.
Bilateral Aerospace Alliances: Expanding on recent European defence ties, the
Minister noted Canada’s formal entry into the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE)
initiative. This agreement enables Canadian defence companies to bid on SAFE
contracts with up to 80% Canadian content, integrating domestic components into the
European marketplace.
Financial Sector Integration and Regulatory Frictions
Minister McGuinty concluded with a directive to Canada’s banking sector, acknowledging that
defence infrastructure, ammunition production, and specialized weapon systems have
historically fallen outside standard domestic bank lending profiles due to shareholder ESG
constraints. To systematically resolve these capital blockages, the government recently
convened a dedicated banking roundtable with major Canadian financial institutions.
The primary policy objective is to streamline the regulatory hurdles that delay private-sector
execution. Specifically, federal agencies are currently modifying internal systems to
accelerate export permit approvals through Global Affairs Canada and compress timelines for
corporate security clearances, creating a more predictable framework for private capital
deployment.
Arctic Sovereignty
The Arctic Sovereignty panel brought together several key Canadian companies involved in
building out Canada’s North. The panel included: Teri McKibbon, President & CEO, Bird
Construction (BDT), Mike Pyle, CEO & Director, Exchange Income (EIF), John MacDonald,
Secretary to Cabinet, Deputy Minister, Department of Executive and Indigenous Affairs,
Government of the Northwest Territories, and Gord Johnston, President & CEO, Stantec
(STN).
The shifting geopolitical reality in the High North is driving structural changes across the
Canadian defence and industrial landscapes, moving Arctic sovereignty from a policy talking
point to a complex capital deployment cycle. The federal government’s proposed $35B Arctic
defence infrastructure mandate represents a significant multi-decade capital project.
Broadening The Mandate: Defence Through Socio-Economic Resilience
The execution of Arctic defence sustainment requires a significant, parallel investment in civil
infrastructure. Discussions highlighted that a year-round presence by the Canadian Armed
Forces (CAF) is functionally dependent on the baseline capacity of local communities, which
must provide medical facilities, permanent housing, and municipal utilities to support
incoming personnel. Consequently, the procurement opportunity is dual-use in nature, adding
a major civil engineer and construction component alongside pure military assets.
Incumbent operators on the panel, BDT, STN and EIF, have demonstrated that long-standing
northern experience provides a structural advantage when managing these projects, as those
who have not operated in the North do not always appreciate the conditions and vastness of
the region.
Procurement Framework And Indigenous Relations
The regulatory and social framework for executing northern infrastructure requires deep
economic integration with local communities. Rather than treating local participation as a
secondary contract requirement, successful execution often relies on structured partnerships
with Indigenous communities. Panel participants noted a shift toward Indigenous groups
realizing structural economic benefits, including direct asset ownership. Two examples of this
include EIF’s strategic alliance with Sakku Investments, the business arm of Kivalliq Inuit
Association, where part of the alliance saw Calm Air (an EIF airline) enter into a long-term
lease of an aircraft hanger in Rankin Inlet that was owned and constructed by Sakku. The
second, while not in the Arctic but in northern Ontario, is a partnership entered into by BDT
and Marten Falls First Nations to create Piinahzii Limited Partnership, a majority Indigenous-owned partnership that will work collaboratively on infrastructure projects within the
community. It also resulted in BDT issuing ~20,000 common shares to Ozhiitaah LP, a Marten Falls First Nation development group.
Environmental Dynamics And Logistical Gating Factors
Project timelines and subsequent revenue recognition for industrial contractors remain
governed by tight seasonal and environmental constraints. The absence of interconnected
ground transport requires a standard 12 – 18 month forward procurement planning cycle, as
heavy materials are dependent on compressed seasonal barge windows or winter ice roads.
The panelists noted that climate change introduces operational volatility; while it is opening
new shipping channels, such as those linked to the planned Gray’s Bay Road and Port
Project, changing temperatures are simultaneously impacting existing infrastructure, causing
foundational challenges on northern facilities built as recently as 15 years ago.
Procurement Efficiency And Industry Collaboration
A notable takeaway for the defence sector was the commentary on the operational efficiency
demonstrated by Defence Construction Canada (DCC). Panelists identified DCC as a
progressive and efficient federal procurement entity, consistently meeting target dates for
projects releases and adapting its contracting models based on industry feedback. This
structural efficiency is enabling faster contracting timelines relative to historical baseline
cycles.
Simultaneously, the massive scale of the required infrastructure is prompting federal
agencies to increase their reliance on commercial partners for solutions-driven procurement
rather than traditional, RFP processes. Because the government faces its own capacity
constraints in directly managing and maintaining these expanding northern assets, it is
increasingly outsourcing long-term operational programs. Procurement examples include the
structural reliance on private operators to manage specialized pilot training platforms and to
provide ongoing maintenance for the military’s fixed-wing search and rescue aircraft fleets.
This shift allows commercial operators to deliver turnkey capabilities directly to the region,
effectively accelerating execution timelines while the political and economic will remains
aligned.
Accelerating Space Defence
The space defence panel, moderated by John Ruffolo (Maverix Equity) brought together
Canadian companies across the space supply chain. Panelists included Daniel S. Goldberg,
CEO of Telesat, representing satellite operators and dual-use broadband infrastructure; Joe
Armstrong, President of 49North (the recently carved-out defence-focused entity of MDA
Space (MDA)), representing satellite manufacturing and integrated defence systems; Steve
Matier, President & CEO of Maritime Launch, representing Canada’s first commercial launch
site in Canso, Nova Scotia; and Hugh Kolias, CEO of Canada Rocket Company, representing
emerging domestic launch vehicle development. Collectively, the panel covered satellite
design and manufacturing, constellation operations, launch infrastructure, and launch
vehicles, providing an end-to-end view of where Canada stands in the global space race and
how quickly it can accelerate.
The discussion was set against a constructive macro backdrop: 1) private space investment
grew ~40% Y/Y to ~$12B globally; 2) a clear sovereign capability push is underway across
Canada and allied nations, and; 3) the upcoming SpaceX IPO is re-rating the entire industry.
Demand Is Structural, Not Cyclical
Space-based assets have transitioned from “nice-to-have” into core defence infrastructure
with a long demand curve. Panelists pointed to a rapid expansion in active satellites, from
~13,000 today to 100,000 expected over the next five years, with recurring demand driven by
an average refresh cycle of five to eight years. MDA pointed to its ability to meet increasing
demand, supported by its expanded manufacturing capacity, with its new Montreal facility
capable of producing up to two satellites per day versus a few per year previously. Panelists
noted that demand for satellite communications, ISR, and launch capabilities is being driven
by lessons from Ukraine, learned “after Musk turned the light switch on and off”.
Dual-use Infrastructure Is The Operating Model
Telesat framed Lightspeed, its $5B LEO constellation, as the “blueprint of dual-use
infrastructure,” serving government/defence broadband alongside commercial aviation,
maritime, and enterprise customers. These use cases are enduring and will require increased
capacity over time. Lightspeed is in execution mode, with MDA selected as prime
approximately two years ago, 14 Falcon 9 launches purchased from SpaceX and two
pathfinder satellites expected to launch in December.
Domestic Launch in the Maritimes Is a Sovereign Asset with Allied Optionality
Panelists stated that sovereignty for launch is also a key priority, as Canada can no longer
solely rely on foreign pads for assured access to orbit. Domestic launch capabilities may also
serve as a key offering to allies as well as for those who “do not have the luxury of living in a
good neighborhood” or do not have access to key orbital corridors that Canada can reach
from the Maritimes. Maritime Launch has a launch scheduled for next month, and the
Department of National Defence has stepped in to lease a pad from Maritime Launch through
a 10-year, $200 million agreement announced on March 16, 2026.
The Medium Lift Gap
Panelists noted that the global launch market has a structural gap in medium-lift rockets
(~25,000 kg) as SpaceX and Blue Origin shift toward super-heavy. Canada Rocket Company
is specifically targeting this middle market, following a Falcon 1, Falcon 2, Falcon 9
architecture progression (6 to 8 years on average), with capex of approximately $500MM
required to get a medium lift rocket to space. The company is deliberately taking the lowest
possible technical risk to ensure speed to market.
Arctic Sovereignty Is Also A Case For Space Assets
The Arctic was discussed as a defining challenge, given its vast geography and harsh
climate. Panelists noted that total coverage must include space assets and integration of data
coming from space and ground-based assets. MDA noted its long history in this area (its first
contract ever was satellite detection systems in the Arctic), as well as longstanding
capabilities in Earth Observation satellites, with RADARSAT2 continuing to operate well
beyond its expected life. In December, the Government of Canada signed a strategic
partnership with MDA Space and Telesat to develop and deliver a multi frequency, Arctic
MILSATCOM capability to the Canadian Armed Forces.
Quantum Computing Leadership Panel
Sarah Boatman, CFO, Photonic, Rafal Janik, COO, Xanadu, and Julien Camirand Lemyre,
Co-Founder & CEO, Nord Quantique framed a constructive setup for Canadian quantum:
validation is increasing, commercialization is within sight, and Canada has a credible chance
to convert technical leadership into strategic and economic relevance. For investors, the key
point is that policy, capital, and defence interest are increasingly aligning behind a small
group of credible domestic platforms. Over the next 10 years, developments in quantum
computing technologies are expected to transform the defence, safety and security
landscape. These technologies pose significant opportunities and challenges to defence and
security. With these three companies poised to thrive as they contribute to advancing
quantum computing’s commercialization.
What matters:
Validation: IBM’s Starling roadmap and Google’s Willow progress both support the view that fault-tolerant quantum computing is nearing a breakthrough. Canada is contributing with support of its world-leading labs (e.g., Xanadu, Photonic, Nord Quantique) to develop scalable, fault-tolerant quantum computers.
Commercialization: Early value is most likely in optimization, materials, healthcare, and quantum-secure infrastructure.
Support: Canadian policy is becoming more targeted via the National Quantum
Strategy and commercialization-focused funding.
Demand signal: Defence is becoming a real adoption vector, with Quantum 2030 and
post-quantum migration priorities helping to pull the ecosystem forward.
Defence and National Security Requirements: The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF)
and the Department of National Defence (DND) are heavily prioritizing quantum science
and technology to modernize the battlespace and ensure secure operations. Their
strategic imperatives are laid out in the Quantum 2030 Strategy. DND’s implementation
plan focuses on four core missions: cryptographic modernization, quantum sensing,
quantum imaging, and computing readiness.
Xanadu: the flagship Canadian photonics story and likely the highest-visibility domestic
platform. Xanadu boasts the unique ability to scale out using a modular networking approach,
giving the company a credible shot at achieving its goal of building a fault-tolerant commercial
scale quantum datacenter by 2030. The debate is simple: if photonics wins, Xanadu could be
one of the country’s most important computing assets.
Photonic: the more architecture-driven fault-tolerant story, with differentiated positioning
around networking and error correction, as well as cost and size benefits. If the market
rewards scalability and system design, Photonic could prove to be strategically important.
Nord Quantique: the earlier-stage call, with differentiated, low-overhead error-correction
technology and real upside if execution holds. It carries more risk, but also the most obvious
optionality.
For global context, these three Canadian names compare well against global competitors in
Quantum Navigator’s 2026 rankings: D-Wave ranked 7th, Xanadu 8th, Photonic 19th, and
Nord Quantique 23rd. Exhibit 1 plots quantum computing companies by total funding raised,
one of the inputs in the Quantum Navigator methodology.
Exhibit 1: Quantum Computing Companies By Modality – Total Funding Raised To Date, 2026 (US$MM)
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
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