As a world leader in quantum computing, Canada is well-positioned for the coming quantum revolution

When generative AI launched into the public consciousness in 2022, many organizations found themselves scrambling to understand a technology that had been, unbeknownst to many, evolving for years. Now, quantum computing is set to be the next technology to move from research labs to boardrooms – and it’s one business leaders can’t afford to ignore.

For decades, quantum computing has promised to solve problems beyond the ability of even the most powerful classical computers, from discovering new medicines to optimizing investment portfolios and supply chains. Commercial applications always seemed years away. Today, researchers increasingly believe the first utility-scale quantum computers – machines capable of solving meaningful commercial problems – could arrive within the next several years.

No one knows exactly when that tipping point will come, or which applications will prove most valuable, but businesses must still start building expertise today. If there’s one thing the AI boom taught us, it’s that emerging technology and the organizations that invested early in talent, experimentation and expertise were the ones best positioned to capitalize on it. The pace of change can accelerate unexpectedly, with developments that may take the industry by surprise and advance timelines exponentially.

For Canada, the stakes are especially high. The country helped lay much of the groundwork for today’s AI revolution, producing world-class researchers, entrepreneurs and breakthroughs that shaped the technology. Yet many of the companies and investment dollars ultimately flowed south of the border. Canada’s computing sector, which includes several leading companies, such as Xanadu, Photonic and Nord Quantique, offers the country a new opportunity to lead, but only if we can retain talent, support homegrown companies and build the ecosystem needed to turn scientific leadership into commercial success. Quantum offers an opportunity to learn from the AI revolution and build on the tremendous momentum we have in the Canadian quantum sector today.

Quantum’s big moment

People have been talking about quantum computing since the 1980s, but the conversation has ramped up over the past few years. Why? Part of the answer lies with AI. The rapid rise of Gen AI changed how businesses and investors think about emerging technologies. Many watched companies such as Nvidia create enormous value as AI adoption accelerated, and they don’t want to miss the next major computing breakthrough.

At the same time, AI and quantum computing complement one another, with the former potentially accelerating what the latter can accomplish. AI is already helping researchers design and operate quantum systems, while quantum computing could eventually enable AI to tackle optimization and modelling problems that remain beyond today’s hardware limitations. Together, the two technologies will reshape the future of financial infrastructure.

Canada’s massive opportunity

If quantum lives up to its promise, these technologies could generate between US$1.3 trillion and US$2.7 trillion in value globally by 2035, according to McKinsey & Company. In Canada, a report commissioned by the National Research Council estimates that the sector could contribute $139 billion to the economy and support more than 200,000 jobs by 2045.

Fortunately, Canada is entering this space from a position of strength. Three of the world’s leading independent quantum companies are Canadian, while Canadian universities and research institutes have established internationally recognized talent pipelines.

Governments have also moved earlier than they did with AI to show their support. For instance, Canada’s 2025 budget committed $334.3 million over five years to strengthen Canada’s quantum sector, including providing funding tied to keeping homegrown companies headquartered in the country.

But while that investment gives the industry an important foundation, building a useful quantum computer is costly. IBM, for example, has committed more than US$10 billion over five years to advance its quantum program, spanning research, manufacturing and acquisitions, with the goal of delivering its first large-scale machine in 2029. Canadian firms will need sustained private investment long before they can count on steady revenue.

If domestic firms don’t receive the investment they need, then they’ll find it elsewhere. For example, D-Wave Quantum was founded in Burnaby, British Columbia and became an early leader in commercial quantum computing. It’s now headquartered in California and trades on the New York Stock Exchange.

Just as important, quantum firms will also need businesses willing to bring them real problems while the technology is still developing. Within financial services, for example, organizations are exploring applications such as fraud detection and portfolio optimization, developing expertise before fully commercial quantum hardware arrives.

Defence is another area where quantum computing could have a significant impact. Quantum technologies are expected to enhance sensing capabilities (for example, GPS-independent navigation), enable more secure communications, and reinforce national security infrastructure, making them an increasingly important strategic priority for governments in Canada, the U.S., and across NATO.

Whether they’re exploring commercial or national security applications, organizations face the same challenge: preparing their workforce for a quantum future. If and when useful quantum computers arrive, there will be a shortage of specialists to meet demand. Organizations can avoid that bottleneck by building a quantum-ready workforce today.

Preparing for tomorrow today 

At CIBC, preparation has meant placing quantum machine-learning talent within our existing AI research group rather than creating a separate lab. This allows the two disciplines to learn from each other while building practical knowledge before the technology reaches wider use. What we learned by scaling Generative and Agentic AI will inform our approach to quantum, and the foundations we’ve established leave us better prepared as we focus on building the capabilities and agility required to scale new technologies.

We’ve also connected teams across AI, cybersecurity, Capital Markets and Innovation Banking. This gives us a broader view of the sector, from the companies raising money to the business use cases and risks that could matter for financial services.

CIBC Capital Markets is also working with quantum companies as they consider financing and growth, while our innovation banking teams are engaging with firms at earlier stages. These relationships help us see where progress is being made and where more support is needed.

Inside the bank, we are testing quantum-inspired approaches against problems we already understand. Fraud detection is one example. We’re also considering cybersecurity. A powerful quantum computer could break some of today’s encryption, making it important for banks to understand the risk before the technology reaches commercial scale. With such experiments, we also begin to understand where quantum – for now at least — may not be the best tool for a particular task.

But the value isn’t limited to successful tests. Quantum methods often require teams to rethink how a problem is framed and question assumptions that may work in conventional settings, but not in a quantum computing setting. Working through these challenges now helps teams build practical experience with the technology we’ll need later.

While we may not know exactly when quantum is coming, we do know that it’s on its way and closer than ever before. Canada has the talent, research and companies the world needs to shape what could become a major new industry. The challenge is to keep more of the value it creates right here at home.